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How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics.

In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, ...

A discussion of the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's "Blink" reveals the importance of intuition in decision-making, explaining how gut feelings occur as a result of unconscious mental processes that effectively function as practical information filters.

So selbstverständlich die heutige Medien- und Wissenswelt mit statistischen Daten hantiert, so erschreckend wenig wissen viele mit all den Zahlen anzufangen. Der renommierte Psychologe Gerd Gigerenzer berichtet von verhängnisvollen Fehlentscheidungen in Medizin und Kriminalistik, entlarvt die zugrunde liegenden Denkfehler und zeigt frappierend einfache Lösungen auf, wie sich Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Risiken besser vermitteln lassen. Mit seinem...

Contrary to popular opinion, one of the main problems in providing uniformly excellent health care is not lack of money but lack of knowledge¿on the part of both doctors and patients. The studies in this book show that many doctors and most patients do not understand the available medical evidence. Both patients and doctors are "risk illiterate"¿frequently unable to tell the difference between actual risk and relative risk. Doctors often canno...

Das Herz hat seine Gründe, die der Verstand nicht kennt." Viele Menschen treffen Entscheidungen "aus dem Bauch heraus", was auf den ersten Blick aller Vernunft zu widersprechen scheint. Gerd Gigerenzer, Professor für Psychologie und Direktor am Berliner Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, erkundet anhand zahlreicher Beispiele, woher unsere Bauchgefühle oder Intuitionen kommen und welcher spezifischen Logik unsere unbewusste Intelligenz ...

Nach »emotionaler Intelligenz« das große Thema der angewandten Psychologie: die »intuitive Intelligenz«»Das Herz hat seine Gründe, die der Verstand nicht kennt«, schrieb Blaise Pascal bereits im 17. Jahrhundert. Die Wissenschaft scheute lange die »Herzensgründe« oder auch Bauchentscheidungen wie der Teufel das Weihwasser. Aber: Gute Entscheidungen basieren oft auf einer unbewussten Intelligenz, die sehr schnell operiert und gerade in komplexen...

Entgegen der allgemeinen Annahme besteht das Hauptproblem bei der gerechten Verteilung von Gesundheitsleistungen nicht in einem Mangel an Geldmitteln, sondern es fehlt an Wissen - sowohl auf der Seite der Ärzte als auch der Patienten! Die Autoren zeigen auf, dass viele Ärzte und die meisten Patienten die verfügbaren Informationen zur Diagnostik und Therapie von Krankheiten nicht verstehen. Besonders in dem zentralen Thema der Risiko-Nutzen-Rel...

Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, this volume explores expertise as a relational concept. In order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the roles of political experts, scientific experts, medical experts, and lega...

Trockenobst ist giftig. Fast Food macht depressiv, Choleragefahr nimmt rasant zu, Polen sind fleißiger als Deutsche: Mit solch dramatischen Meldungen auf höchst fragwürdiger Datenbasis lassen wir uns täglich nur allzu gern aufstören. Der Psychologe Gigerenzer, Gerd, der Ökonom Thomas Bauer und der Statistiker Walter Krämer diagnostizieren uns eine Art Analphabetismus im Umgang mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Risiken und haben darauf mit der Ernen...

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox and Reckoning with Risk.

A practical toolkit for understanding risk in the world around us, from the author of "Reckoning With Risk".

Keine Beschreibung.

A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut FeelingsIn this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it's about next year's stock market or a person's risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable t...

Keine Beschreibung.

Why is split second decision-making superior to deliberation? Gut Feelings delivers the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's Blink. Reflection and reason are overrated, according to renowned psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition, a suite of gut feelings that have evolved over the millennia specifically for making decisions. Gladwell drew h...

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical think...

Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man¿s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician.

This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance transformed the natural and social sciences, as well as daily life, over the past three centuries

Experts in law, psychology, and economics explore the power of "fast and frugal" heuristics in the creation and implementation of law